What Tottenham need to do to qualify for the Champions League

Tottenham Hotspur’s battle to qualify for next season’s Champions League is likely to go down to the wire after Ange Postecoglou’s men suffered defeat on Saturday evening.

Spurs went into this past weekend’s clash with Fulham knowing that a victory would move them above Aston Villa and into the top four. However, disappointment was to follow as Sasa Lukic’s goal sandwiched between a Rodrigo Muniz brace ensured that Marco Silva’s side earned bragging rights with a 3-0 victory at Craven Cottage.

It was not just Spurs’ pride which took a knock though; their hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League did so too.

What Tottenham must do to finish in the top four
First things first: finishing in the Premier League top four means automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages the following season. Spurs currently sit fifth in the table, on 53 points, three points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa having played a game less (28) than Unai Emery’s men (29).

Spurs will go level on points with Villa if they win their game in hand. In terms of goal difference, Spurs (+17) only trail Villa by one (+18), so a 1-0 victory in that game in hand would leave both teams level on points, goals scored and goals conceded. In short, it’s a tight battle.

Were Spurs and Villa to win all their remaining games, fourth place would come down to goal difference. Therefore, to guarantee fourth place, Spurs must either simply outshoot Villa in terms of points in their remaining games – a solitary point would do it – or outscore them in terms of goal difference if both sides finished level on points.

Now here’s where things get tricky. If Spurs and Villa were to finish on the same number of points, the same goal difference and the same number of goals scored, then fourth place would come down to which team has earned the most points in their head-to-head League matches this season. Both Villa and Spurs beat each other away this season, but there’s a further decider: Villa won 2-1 in north London in November, but Spurs thrashed Emery’s side 4-0 at Villa Park on 10 March – and Spurs’ superior away goals in head-to-heads would tip the balance in their favour.

Given all the talk of the battle against Villa, Spurs also have to be looking over their shoulder at Manchester United side who, while unpredictable in terms of results, are more than capable of making a late play for fourth place.

How can Tottenham ensure they finish above United?
United were boosted by Villa and Spurs’ slip-ups at the weekend but still sit sixth, with 47 points after 28 games: that’s nine behind Villa with a game in hand, and six behind Spurs on the same number of matches played. Should Spurs pick up 25 points from the remaining 30 available, they are certain to finish above United in the table.

That 25-point target is the maximum Spurs will need, given it is based on Erik ten Hag’s men winning all their remaining matches. Any draws or losses for United will make life easier for Spurs, while 24 points would also likely be enough to finish above United anyway given Ten Hag’s side sit on a goal difference of 0 after a low-scoring campaign.

A tricky three-game spell will likely prove crucial to whether United can catch Tottenham: Spurs face Newcastle away (13 April), Arsenal at home (27 April) and Liverpool at home (4 May); a run which could decide their fate.